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Abstract Aircraft measurements reveal ice supersaturation statistics in cirrus (ISSs) with broad maxima around ice saturation and pronounced variance. In this study, processes shaping ISSs in midlatitude and tropical upper tropospheric conditions are systematically investigated. Water vapor deposition and sublimation of size‐resolved ice crystal populations are simulated in an air parcel framework. Mesoscale temperature fluctuations (MTFs) due to gravity waves force the temporal evolution of supersaturation. Various levels of background wave forcing and cirrus thickness are distinguished in stochastic ensemble simulations. Kinetic limitations to ice mass growth are brought about by supersaturation‐dependent deposition coefficients that represent efficient and inefficient growth modes as a function of ice crystal size. The simulations identify a wide range of deposition coefficients in cirrus, but most values stay above 0.01 such that kinetic limitations to water uptake remain moderate. Supersaturation quenching times are long, typically 0.5–2 hr. The wave forcing thus causes a remarkably large variability in ISSs and cirrus microphysical properties except in the thickest cirrus, producing ensemble‐mean ISSs in line with in‐situ measurements. ISS variance is controlled by MTFs and increases with decreasing cirrus integral radii. In comparison, the impact of ice crystal growth rates on ISSs is small. These results contribute to efforts directed at identifying and solving issues associated with ice‐supersaturated areas and non‐equilibrium cirrus physics in global models. 

Abstract Cirrus ice crystals are produced heterogeneously on ice‐nucleating particles (INPs) and homogeneously in supercooled liquid solution droplets. They grow by uptake of water molecules from the ice‐supersaturated vapor. The precursor particles, characterized by disparate ice nucleation abilities and number concentrations, compete for available vapor during ice formation events. We investigate cirrus formation events systematically in different temperature and updraft regimes, and for different INP number concentrations and time‐independent nucleation efficiencies. We consider vertical air motion variability due to mesoscale gravity waves and effects of supersaturation‐dependent deposition coefficients for water molecules on ice surfaces. We analyze ice crystal properties to better understand the dynamics of competing nucleation processes. We study the reduction of ice crystal numbers produced by homogeneous freezing due to INPs in both, individual simulations assuming constant updraft speeds and in ensemble simulations based on a stochastic representation of vertical wind speed fluctuations. We simulate and interpret probability distributions of total nucleated ice crystal number concentrations, showing signatures of homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation. At typically observed, mean updraft speeds (≈15 cm s⁻¹) competing nucleation should occur frequently, even at rather low INP number concentrations (<10 L⁻¹). INPs increase cirrus occurrence and may alter cirrus microphysical properties without entirely suppressing homogeneous freezing events. We suggest to improve ice growth models, especially for low cirrus temperatures (<220 K) and low ice supersaturation (<0.3).